Eight teams left. Spain, France, Argentina, England, Belgium, Morocco, Norway, Switzerland. And the short answer, as the quarter-finals kick off: Spain sit as the team to beat, France and Argentina are right behind, England lurk the way England always lurk, and the story of the tournament so far is who isn't on that list.
Because look at the wreckage. All three hosts, gone in the round of 16, Canada flattened by Morocco, Mexico edged out by England in a five-goal classic, and the USA taken apart 4-1 by Belgium on home soil. And Brazil. Brazil! Beaten 2-1 by Norway, a country attending its first World Cup knockout rounds since most of its squad was in nappies. This tournament has been a woodchipper for reputations, which makes the favorites question genuinely interesting rather than the usual recitation.
So, the honest rundown, team by team, with the quarter-final matchups and the model's numbers where we have them. Written on the eve of the quarters, July 8, and knockout football has spent four weeks laughing at predictions, so read accordingly.
The Top Tier: Spain, France, Argentina
Spain first, and it isn't complicated. European champions, the deepest midfield alive, and they just dismissed Portugal 1-0 in an Iberian derby that was tighter on the scoreboard than on the pitch. The machine hums. Their quarter-final against Belgium comes with a 59 percent win probability from the match models, and the neutral's only complaint about Spain is aesthetic: they win so calmly it barely feels like drama.
France, next, doing the thing France do in tournaments: accumulating 1-0 wins like a team saving its receipts. Paraguay were dispatched with minimum fuss, and the models make them the heaviest quarter-final favorite of the four ties, 61 percent against Morocco. The catch, and it's a real one: that Morocco tie is a rematch of the 2022 semi-final, Morocco have already eaten one host nation this tournament, and France's habit of playing exactly as well as required has a way of turning one bad night into a funeral.
And Argentina, the defending champions, who are somehow both alive and permanently mid-heart-attack. A 3-2 over Cape Verde in the round of 32. Another 3-2, over Egypt, in the round of 16. Champions win while wobbling, that's the cliché, but two straight two-goal concessions is less a wobble than a lifestyle. The models give them 57 percent against Switzerland, and every Argentina match so far says take the over.
The Chasing Pack: England and Belgium
England beat a host nation in front of a hundred-thousand-plus crowd, 3-2 over Mexico, and did it with the tournament's most convincing attacking display by a European side. Their quarter-final against Norway carries a 52 percent model probability, the tightest favorite's margin of the round, which sounds about right: on paper England should win, and on paper England have won many tournaments they did not win. The pedigree of recent finals and semis is real, though. This is the least neurotic England squad in memory, and it's showing.
Belgium are the resurrection story nobody ordered. The golden generation's obituary was published years ago, and then this new group walked into the USA's home party and scored four. If that performance was real, and 4-1 away to a host is difficult to fake, the Spain quarter-final is a genuine contest rather than a coronation. The models still say 17 percent. The eye test says higher.
The Wild Cards: Norway, Morocco, Switzerland
Norway are the romance of the bracket. The Haaland-Ødegaard generation, the reason this expanded 48-team format exists, and they've cashed the opportunity in full: qualified, survived the groups, then knocked out Brazil, five-time champions, in the round of 16. Twenty-two percent against England is what the model allows them. Ask Brazil what the models knew.
Morocco, meanwhile, are no romance at all, they're a repeat offender. Semi-finalists in 2022, and now back in the last eight having crushed Canada 3-0 in Vancouver's own building. The France rematch gives them a shot at the one scalp that eluded them last cycle, and no team left in this draw fears the occasion less.
Switzerland complete the eight the most Swiss way imaginable: a 0-0 against Colombia, survived on penalties, order restored, nobody's highlight reel troubled. Every tournament needs one team that simply refuses to be eliminated, and 17 percent against Argentina is exactly the kind of number this fixture exists to embarrass.
The Bracket Math
Worth seeing the road, because the draw has split beautifully. One half: France-Morocco and Spain-Belgium, meaning a France-Spain semi-final on July 14 in Dallas is the heavyweight collision the whole sport is bracing for, if both survive the ambushes. Other half: Norway-England and Argentina-Switzerland, pointing toward England-Argentina on July 15 in Atlanta, a fixture that needs no marketing department on three continents.
Which frames the favorites question properly. Spain and France may have to go through each other before anyone reaches the final on July 19 at MetLife. Argentina's side of the draw, Switzerland then likely England or Norway, is the softer road on paper, and defending champions with a soft road have a way of arriving at finals whether they're playing well or not.
The Bottom Line
As the quarter-finals begin: Spain are the favorites, on form, on depth, on the calm of champions. France are a photo-finish second with the hardest possible route. Argentina are third by ranking and first by narrative, surviving on experience and chaos in equal measure. England are the best-placed outsider with the kindest half of the draw. And then the insurgents, Belgium's four-goal statement, Morocco's second consecutive deep run, and Norway, who already produced the result of the tournament and have precisely zero interest in stopping.
Four matches between now and the semis, and this World Cup has already eliminated three hosts and Brazil. Predictions are offered with appropriate humility. Spain, if forced to name one. Quietly, and in pencil.
FAQs: World Cup 2026 Favorites
Who is the favorite to win the World Cup 2026 right now?
Spain, entering the quarter-finals: reigning European champions, unbeaten through the knockouts, and winners of the Portugal tie in the round of 16. France and defending champions Argentina sit just behind, with England leading the next group. The match models make all four favorites in their quarter-finals.
Which teams are in the 2026 World Cup quarter-finals?
Eight remain: France vs Morocco (July 9), Spain vs Belgium (July 10), Norway vs England and Argentina vs Switzerland (July 11). The semi-finals follow on July 14 in Dallas and July 15 in Atlanta, with the final on July 19 at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.
How did Brazil get knocked out of the World Cup 2026?
Norway beat them 2-1 in the round of 16, one of the biggest upsets in recent World Cup history, sending the five-time champions home and putting Norway into a first quarter-final of the modern era. Norway now face England for a semi-final place.
Are any host nations still in the tournament?
No, all three fell in the round of 16 within four days: Morocco beat Canada 3-0, England edged Mexico 3-2, and Belgium beat the USA 4-1. It leaves the tournament's final week entirely in visiting hands, with seven European teams and Argentina, plus Morocco, contesting the trophy. (Morocco being the lone non-European side other than Argentina.)
Can Argentina win back-to-back World Cups?
They're four wins away, and no team has retained the trophy since Brazil in 1962, which is the size of the history against them. The case for: champion experience, a favorable half of the draw, and a knack for surviving chaos, both knockout wins so far finished 3-2. The case against is those same scorelines, five goals conceded in two rounds is not championship defending.
What are Morocco's chances against France?
The models give Morocco roughly 16 percent, and the models gave Brazil's opponents similar respect. Morocco reached the 2022 semi-finals, just dismantled a host nation 3-0, and meet France in a direct rematch of that 2022 semi, the one match from that run they'd most like back. Underdogs, certainly. Unfamiliar with the role, absolutely not.